2025 Federal Election: How Liberal, Conservative & NDP Housing Promises Will Shape the GTA Real Estate Market

As the federal election on April 28, 2025, draws near, the Greater Toronto Area’s (GTA) housing crisis is a defining issue for voters and real estate professionals alike. As a Realtor serving clients across Toronto, Vaughan, Mississauga, and beyond, I’ve seen the toll of this crisis firsthand—skyrocketing prices, a severe supply shortage, and an exodus of young families seeking affordability elsewhere.

The Liberal Party of Canada, Conservative Party of Canada, and NDP have each proposed housing strategies to tackle these challenges. Below, I’ll dissect their platforms, assess their potential impact on the GTA real estate market, and offer a comparison to guide buyers, renters, and investors as we approach this pivotal election.

The GTA Housing Crisis: A Snapshot

The GTA housing market is under immense pressure. Over the past year, 80,000 more people left the GTA than moved in, with young families leading the charge in search of affordable options beyond the region.

Home prices, though down 5% year-over-year to an average of $1,106,617, remain out of reach for many, exacerbated by a supply shortage—experts estimate we need 30,000 ground-oriented homes and 20,000 apartment units annually just to keep up with demand.

Public sentiment reflects this strain: an Ipsos poll found 88% of Ontarians are concerned about GTA housing affordability, with 48% considering leaving within five years. As a Realtor, I hear this frustration daily—clients want solutions, not promises.

The Liberal Party: Ambitious Supply and Incentives

The Liberals, led by Mark Carney, are pitching an aggressive supply boost, aiming to double construction to nearly 500,000 homes annually and build 3.87 million homes by 2031. Their strategy hinges on Build Canada Homes (BCH), a new agency tasked with developing affordable housing on federal land, backed by $35 billion in funding, including $25 billion for prefab builders.

They’re also introducing a Canadian Renters’ Bill of Rights, cracking down on short-term rentals like Airbnb, and removing GST on new rental builds and homes up to $1 million for first-time buyers—saving GTA buyers up to $50,000.

For the GTA, this could mean more purpose-built rentals and condos in high-demand areas like Brampton or Scarborough, especially with their $15 billion Housing Accelerator Fund pushing municipal zoning reforms. However, condo sales have already dropped 19.8% in Q2 2024—will this spark demand?

Realtor Perspective: The focus on rentals and supply is promising, but construction bottlenecks and investor activity could limit affordability gains. Collaboration with municipalities will be critical.

The Conservative Party: Tax Relief and Municipal Accountability

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives emphasize speed and private-sector involvement, targeting 1 million homes in three years. They’ll tie federal funding to a 15% annual increase in housing starts, sell off 15% of federal land and buildings for housing, and waive GST on new homes up to $1.3 million—offering GTA buyers up to $65,000 in savings. Additional measures include fast-tracking permits near transit hubs and a two-year ban on foreign buyers.

In the GTA, this could unlock transit-oriented developments along GO Transit or TTC lines and spur suburban growth. Yet, with prices cooling and inventory rising, will tax cuts alone reignite a sluggish market?

Realtor Perspective: The emphasis on cutting red tape and leveraging federal land is practical, but the ambitious timeline faces labour and land-cost hurdles. Investors may benefit more than first-timers.

The NDP: Affordability and Renter Protections

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP prioritizes affordability, pledging 500,000 affordable homes over 10 years, including rent-controlled units, and a 20% foreign buyer tax. They’ll expand CMHC’s role to offer low-interest mortgages (saving $9,500 over five years on a $500,000 loan), double the Home Buyers’ Tax Credit, and ban corporate landlords from snapping up affordable rentals. A $1 billion public land fund aims to keep housing accessible.

For GTA renters in Etobicoke or North York, where rents remain high despite recent softening, this could stabilize costs. But will developers scale back if profits shrink?

Realtor Perspective: The renter-first approach and anti-speculation measures address urgent needs, but industry pushback and funding scale could slow progress. Expanding CMHC's role puts more risk on the taxpayer who are already backing insured mortgages. Homeownership remains the ultimate goal for most.

Comparing the 2025 Housing Plans: A GTA Realtor’s View

Here’s chart comparing the platforms’ GTA impacts:

Implications for GTA Homebuyers, Renters, and Investors

• Homebuyers: The Liberals’ and Conservatives’ GST waivers could save $50,000-$65,000, a boon for first-timers or move-up buyers. TREB predicts a buyer-friendly 2025 with moderate price growth—pair this with lower rates, and it’s a window of opportunity.

• Renters: The NDP’s rent controls and Liberal rental stock boost could ease pressures, especially with high inventory keeping rents below peaks. Long-term relief hinges on supply.

• Investors: The Conservatives’ capital gains deferrals and Liberals’ MURB revival could spark rental investments, though NDP’s corporate crackdown might deter large players.

Conclusion: A Realtor’s Reflection on the GTA Housing Future

As a Realtor immersed in the Greater Toronto Area’s real estate landscape, I’ve seen how the interplay of federal policies and market forces shapes our housing reality. We operate within a free market governed by the rules of supply and demand, and the primary barriers to affordability in the GTA remain clear: a persistent shortage of housing supply and limited access to the city’s core.

The Liberal, Conservative, and NDP platforms each offer distinct strategies to address these challenges, from aggressive construction targets to tax incentives and renter protections. Yet, their success hinges on execution and collaboration across all levels of government.

Beyond building more homes, improving infrastructure and transit could unlock a broader solution. Enhanced GO Transit lines, expanded TTC networks, and better regional connectivity would enable commuters to live further from Toronto’s urban centre, distributing demand across a wider area and easing pressure on GTA prices.

However, history offers a cautionary tale: the decision not to connect Sheppard Avenue East Station with Sheppard Avenue West Station when the Sheppard subway line was built in 2002 stands as a colossal mistake. This failure to create a continuous east-west transit spine across North York left a fragmented system, stranding commuters and squandering an opportunity to move people efficiently across the region. It’s a stark reminder that infrastructure must prioritize actually moving people—not just drawing lines on a map. Future investments should learn from this, ensuring transit links like these are completed to spread housing demand and enhance accessibility.

This approach could make homeownership and renting more attainable for families in places like Durham or Peel, while preserving the market’s natural dynamics. As we head into the 2025 federal election, I urge my clients and fellow residents to weigh these housing promises carefully. The path forward lies not just in policy, but in practical steps to boost supply, improve access, and prioritize efficient transit solutions. For personalized guidance in navigating this evolving market, reach out—together, we’ll find your place in the GTA’s future.